Alachua Voter Guide

With all the excitement that the Barack Obama campaign seems to be bringing to Alachua County Democrats, it will be interesting to see if they will be so focused on November that they let the August 26 primary slip right by. And with the Republicans having no primary contest since Ward Scott decided not to butt heads with Lloyd Bailey and move his campaign to District 5, it may be a pretty anemic turnout that decides the universal primaries between Sadie Darnell and Lonnie Scott for Sheriff, and Ed Crapo and Alonzo Perkins for Property Appraiser.

Although all those candidates are Democrats, ALL registered voters in Alachua County can vote in those contests. All Alachua County voters can also vote for County Judge and the two School Board seats. Only registered Democrats can vote in the District 1 Primary between Incumbent Mike Byerly and the twice elected former Gainesville City Commissioner Rick Bryant. And there’s one more detail: all voters must be registered by July 28th to vote in the August 26 elections.

The last time we had a Presidential Election, 2004, we had a pretty high turnout. It was a little over 78%. But that didn’t have any positive effect on the August Primary of that year, which had 37% voting in the Senatorial primary, but only 30% for Judges and School Board. This year there will be no Senatorial races to pull up the turnout, and with so many people looking ahead to November, it’s likely to be another 30% dud. The question is, how will this affect the local races?

First of all, the primaries generally bring out the most dedicated partisan voters. And since there is seldom if ever a Republican contest in August in these parts, it’s a big Democratic advantage. Republicans and other conservatives have little impact here.

In the Sheriff’s race, Sadie Darnell is a Democratic Party darling running against Lonnie Scott, an African-American who is running about 6 weeks ahead of the coat tails that could have helped him most. He will likely lose unless he somehow becomes a monstrous inspiration to a voting public that just doesn’t care.

In the Property Appraiser’s race, 20 year Incumbent Ed Crapo is going to beat newcomer Alonzo Perkins unless Mr. Perkins can rekindle whatever smoldering outrage there may be from the Sun’s reporting earlier this year. Mr. Crapo made a little money consulting for a company that then sold the county some really expensive software, that some people thought was over-priced. It didn’t look good, but I’ll bet the voters of August will not think it’s a firing offense.

The Democratic Primary race between Mike Byerly and Rick Bryant in District 1 will be a barn burner. Commissioner Byerly is a lightning rod for Republicans and conservative Democrats who see him as an environmental extremist. He was elected with a 45% plurality in a three way race in 2000. Then he won a relatively close race against newcomer Ward Scott in the closed primary that was forced by a last minute write-in candidate. This time he is running against a well liked conservative Democrat who will not be getting any help from Republicans who cannot vote for him. It will be August 26, and the kind of people who will vote for Mike Byerly are the kind who will come out during a hurricane. It will also be the day after classes start at UF, and it’s hard to say who this will affect more. All those young voters primed to vote for Change they Can Believe In will have their eyes on November. Byerly misses the Obama coattail effect, so this negates some of his green power. I think this is a toss up. And I think toss ups go to the lucky. And that would be Mike Byerly.

In the race for Alachua County Judge, there are 5 candidates, and if nobody wins 50% plus one on August 26, the top two will be in a runoff during the November Presidential Election. Lorraine Sherman ran for circuit judge in 2006 and lost, but she is now has an organization and a mailing list, which is why she has raised the most money so far. People who voted for here before will probably do so again. However, she was running in the 8th Circuit, which is comprised of several counties, and she did not do well in Alachua County. She got only 20% here. Stan Griffis only got 28% here, but he did very well in the other counties, which is why he won. Nonetheless, she will probably improve somewhat, and that will likely help her make the runoff with someone who is any one’s guess.

In the School Board races, District 2 sees the return of former School Board member Jeannine Cawthon challenging the incumbent Eileen Roy. Ms. Roy has been found to be a bit prickly, and she has her detractors, but she also has her ardent fans. They are the people with the “I support Eileen Roy” bumper stickers all over town. They appeared shortly after she was elected and they are spreading. Ms. Cawthon, like Kate Barnes in 2004, may find that she has been gone too long and that zealous supporters outweigh grumbling critics. I think Eileen Roy has a big edge.

In the District 4 School Board race we have a pretty uninspiring incumbent against a challenger who has lost her last two battles. Janie Williams ran for an open seat and won in 2004. I went to those forums between her and Ike Jones, and I saw nothing that made me think she would win. Barbara Sharpe was soundly beaten in her last race for a City Commission seat by Sherwin Henry. This one is a toss up, and I think Ms. Williams lucks out again.

Now, these “predictions” are not my preferences. They are just my observations and educated guesses. I will no doubt be wrong about some of them. What I hope is that some of the candidates and their friends will respond to what I’ve said here. I want a give and take on this site. The public needs it.