Election Eve Predictions
Eileen Roy Greeting the public at NW 43rd and 23rd
I was recently asked by a news reporter to make some predictions on tomorrow’s final. I had been planning on doing just that tonight, so I thought I’d warm up on him. Catch it in a couple of hours on TV20. I am supposed to get 45 whole seconds!
First, the Sheriff’s race. Earlier, I thought Lonnie Scott had no chance because he would not have Barack Obama’s considerable coat tails to ride on. But recent revelations about the incredible acrimony and controversy surrounding Sadie Darnell’s tenure as Sheriff has caused me to realize that this is…drum roll…too close to call! On the one hand, few people realize that the incumbent has trouble since the Gainesville Sun has totally rolled over on this race. That would make Lonnie the loser in most circumstances. However, I am seeing a LOT of Mike Byerly signs wedded to Lonnie Scott signs out there. And Mike Byerly’s supporters are the kind of people who would come out to vote in a hurricane. Add to that the black vote that might be on the side of Byerly’s opponent, Rick Bryant, and this could be quite an upset. It all depends on turnout. A typical, lousy turnout of just the most dedicated voters spells Doom for Darnell. But an unusually large turnout would Lay out Lonnie.
Property Appraiser’s Race: Crapo by a knockout. He got some bad press early this year, got over it; his opponent never brought it up. Alonzo Perkins didn’t go in for the kill. The multi-term incumbent wins 60-40 or better.
Judges race: Denise Ferrero in the first round. All these candidates are good, but she has support that I underestimated at first. I thought Lorraine Sherman was the one to beat. She had the campaign machine already oiled and financed early on. She had run for the 8th circuit a couple of years ago and failed to make the runoff. She made a respectable showing in some parts of the 8th circuit, but she did not do well in Alachua County. But Denise Ferrero seems to have overwhelmed the field with signs and endorsements. It looks good for her.
School Board District 2: Eileen Roy, 55-45%. Roy has branded herself like few candidates. There are “I Support Eileen Roy” bumper stickers on cars all year round. She gets it. Politics has no seasons, and her fans are not for fair weather only.
School Board District 4: Barbara Sharpe, 55-45%. In a county wide race, name recognition matters. She got blown out her last time out in the small, lousy-turnout, District 1 Gainesville City Commission race by Sherwin Henry. Before that she failed to make the cut in the 2004 Democratic primary race for Supervisor of Elections. But before that she was a 3 term School Board member. We are used to seeing her name, and she still has friends. She’s ba-a-a-ack!
Last but not least, the Democratic Primary race for the the District 1 County Commission seat! All the other uber-environmentalists have left this governing body one way or another. Can the greenest of them all survive? I think so. Rick Bryant, the well-liked former Gainesville City Commissioner has a lot of friends, but many of them are not going to be able to vote for him because they are Independents and Republicans. He will need a high turnout of conservative, Byerly-hating Democrats, and I just don’t think there are enough of them. If this was a Universal Primary, like the Sheriff’s race, Rick Bryant could start moving in. But it’s not, and he won’t. Byerly wins, 52-48%.
