Alachua Voter Guide

I did the early voting thing today. It was 7 AM at the Millhopper Branch of the Public Library, and there were probably thirty people ahead of me when I got there. I drove by again hours later, and there was still a long line outside. And I understand it has been like this for weeks. I wondered how this was possible, but then I remembered that there are about 72 precincts being served by the 2 public libraries and the Supervisor of Elections office downtown. So the turnout has been impressive, but we won’t know until it is over just how big it was.

Now that I have made my choices, I thought I would weigh in on who I thought was going to win, and why. These guesses have nothing to do with my preferences. They don’t even have too much to do with the candidates. It has more to do with how the voters act. And we are going to have a lot of voters who are showing up primarily for the Presidential race. The rest of the candidates they will probably be giving their consideration for the very first time right there in the voting booth. Some of these voters will have no information and no voting history to predict how they will react tot the other choices. Therefore, your guess is probably as good as mine.

Congressional District 6

Cliff Stearns has been our Congresssman for 20 years. The power of incumbency is a powerful thing. However, there will be a huge turnout in Alachua County for Barack Obama, and those coattails will benefit newcomer Tim Cunha. Obama voters are likely to vote a straight Democrat ticket, in my opinion. Of course, a lot of the 6th District is in Marion County, which will have a McCain coattail effect. These should equalize each other, giving Mr. Stearns another term.

State House District 11

Debbie Boyd won in an upset in 2006. Now she is the incumbent. Obama-heavy Alachua County is only a part of her district. The rural counties are more likely to be McCain country. But Ms. Boyd is a conservative Democrat, which most Republicans can live with. She should defeat Elizabeth Porter in a close race.

State House District 23

Chuck Chestnut should take out Bernie DeCastro in a blowout. Mr. DeCastro has been invisible during this race, and Chestnut is the incumbent riding the Obama wave.

Alachua County Commission

This is a very bad year to be running against a Democrat in this county. Obama is going to take this county 60-40 easily, and a lot of those voters will vote by their default: party identification. Even though the county commissioners raise the ire of many homeowners, they keep getting re-elected. Republicans seldom mount a serious charge. I believe Mike Byerly, Paula Delaney, and Rodney Long will all win. The closest race will probably be the Lloyd Bailey-Paula Delaney contest. Bailey has run twice before and has good name recognition and is well thought of. But he will still likely lose because of the disadvantage that comes with having an opponent with a D after her name.

Alachua County Judge

Denise Ferrero took 45% to Lorraine Sherman’s 21% in the August contest that set up this runoff. Sherman has been banging away on Ferrero for the past month, attacking her integity and credibility. This is unusual, but in a judicial race it should give the voters pause. However, you have to bang away for a lot more than one month to overcome the apathy of the typical voter. Ms. Ferrero’s lead in August is a good sampling of the November race, and she will likely prevail, although Sherman’s surge will make it closer. I believe that Ferrero will win 55-45%

Soil and Water Conservation District

In seat 2, David Gildart has been the candidate who has been acting like he wants it; at least on this site. People have been searching for him on the Internet, and finding him here. In this non-partisan race, I have to give him the edge. In the race for seat 4, Rob Brinkman is well-known and politically connected with the local Democrats. Name recognition and his friends in the local machine give him the edge over Mary Ann Gosa, who I still know nothing about.

Local Referenda

I will not call winners and losers in the state-wide ballot initiatives. I am a strict Alachua-tarian in that regard. In the One Mil for Education, I believe that one will pass. People know the earlier property tax cut the voters passed state-wide in January put a hurt on schools. They will probably restore it with local money by voting yes, 60-40%. Wild Spaces/Public Places would ordinarily not be likely to pass. The public does not like to tax itself twice on the same ballot. I see schools being favored over wildlife and parks. This one should go down 60-40%, except- The Obama Effect. Will first time voters and young voters just write a big check while they are at it? I think this passes in a squeaker. Likewise with the third local referendum, Protection of County Owned Lands Acquired or Used for Conservation, Recreation or Cultural Purposes. It will pass 60-40%.

I may be completely wrong, and these do not reflect my preferences. It’s just the way I see it shaking out.