Alachua Voter Guide

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Nerding out on the numbers-District 1

April 18, 2013 By: Don Marsh Category: Local Issues, Uncategorized

Here it is, only 2 days after Ed Braddy’s victory and it’s time to start taking it apart! Since I was Lowe’s opponent in 2010, these sorts of comparisons are near and dear to my heart.

Today, we are looking at District one, which isĀ  made of up of precincts number 13, 19, 25, 28, 33, 55, and 59. It’s largely East Gainesville. It is pretty much the Graveyard of Republicans. Ed Braddy and I are both Republicans who distinguished ourselves from most Republican candidates by reaching out to East Gainesville. How has that worked out for us? Here’s some of the raw numbers.

Comparing District 1 results 2010 vs 2013
13th precinct
Lowe/Marsh 135 56.02% 106 43.98% L +12%
Braddy/Lowe 110 36.79% 189 63.21% L +26%
19th precinct
Lowe/Marsh 126 66.32% 64 33.68% L +32%
Braddy/Lowe 79 31.10% 175 68.90% L +38%
25th precinct
Lowe/Marsh 60 68.97% 27 31.03% L +38%
Braddy/Lowe 54 30.68% 122 69.32% L +38%
28th precinct
Lowe/Marsh 132 51.56% 124 48.44% L +4%
Braddy/Lowe 168 45.04% 205 54.96% L +10%
33rd precinct
Lowe/Marsh 134 42.01% 185 57.99% M +16%
Braddy/Lowe 183 49.06% 190 50.94% L +2%
55th precinct
Lowe/Marsh 68 37.99% 111 62.01% M +24%
Braddy/Lowe 79 59.85% 53 40.15% B +20%
59th precinct
Lowe/Marsh 127 62.87% 75 37.13 L +26%
Braddy/Lowe 151 50.00% 151 50.00% T +0%
District 1 totals
Lowe/Marsh 782 53% 692 47% turnout 10.16%
Braddy/Lowe 824 43% 1085 57% turnout 10.28%

This is not hard to figure out. The first number is the actual number of votes in that precinct, followed by the percentage of voters that represents. Then the opponent’s number of votes followed by its corresponding percentage, followed by the winner’s first initial and his margin of victory.

I was surprised to see that I had actually lost that district by a smaller margin than Ed did. And the voter turnout rate was just a bit smaller in 2010 than in 2013. The overall votes were more, but voter registration was up in 2013 because we just came off a Presidential election.

I know Ed spent more than I did, had much more visible support than I did, and I will be the first to admit that Ed is just a better candidate than I was. What happened? The only reason for this disparity is that I surprised Craig Lowe last time. This time, they saw it coming. The Machine must have pulled out all the stops, because they got out 303 m0re votes to defend against Ed than they did against me.

Another wrinkle in this story is this: in 2011, in my at large race against Tom Hawkins, I didn’t do nearly as well as the year before. This, I believe, has more to do with Craig Lowe being a more polarizing candidate than Hawkins.

2 Comments to “Nerding out on the numbers-District 1”


  1. Sam Twain says:

    The Machine did pull out all the stops in District 1.

    Machine workers approached households with Ed Braddy for Mayor signs to point out that Ed Braddy is a Republican. That he “did not vote for our president.”

    When that wasn’t enough, it was suggested Ed Braddy is a racist.

    Sometimes this resulted in Braddy signs being exchanged for Lowe signs. Braddy volunteers went back to these houses where the signs had changed and found this out.

    In an audience question at the 2nd 4A’s forum, a Lowe supporter tied Ed Braddy to the KKK. Moderator Rodney Long chose to read that question.

    Corinne Brown had District 1 robo calls against Ed Braddy on Monday night.

    These things and others performed by Machinists surely had an effect on District 1 voters

    1
  2. RAY WASHINGTON says:

    Don,

    It is difficult to say how accurately the two races — 2010 and 2013 — can be compared in terms of District 1 voter trends.

    I live in District 1 and have for some time, but District 1′s boundaries,, as well as precinct boundaries (mine included) changed between the two elections.

    For instance:

    When you ran for Mayor, Precinct 59 was in District 4, not in District 1.

    When you ran for Mayor, Precinct 55 extended further west and contained a different voter mix.

    When you ran for Mayor, District 19 (my District) was larger and included the Colclough Hill neighborhood, which is no longer the case.

    It may be useful to analyze the shift in District 1 precinct votes between the regular election and the runoff election. One way of doing this is to take the relative percentages of votes for Braddy and Lowe in the regular election and add to those totals for each precinct the same percentage of votes cast for the candidates who were eliminated (Henry, Johnson, Venzke and Shepherd), and then to compare precinct by precinct the theoretical Braddy and Lowe regular election votes with the actual votes each received in the runoff. Using these theoretical numbers as a base, Braddy had a better runoff result than Lowe in four District 1 precincts (19, 28, 55, 59), while Lowe had a better runoff result than Braddy in three District 1 precincts (13, 25 and 33).

    Although Lowe received 57% of the District 1 vote in the runoff as opposed to 43% of the District 1 votes cast for Braddy, this result indicates an improvement for Braddy from the relative 59% to 41% for Lowe in the regular election.

    These numbers do not necessarily mean your overall analysis is incorrect, Don. But given your better showing in District 1 and given the growing disaffection of many of my District 1 neighbors with the Democratic Executive Committee leadership between 2010 and to day, when early voter and absentee voter information is made available, it might be useful to do District 1 precinct comparisons to help identify any patterns that might better explain the reasons for the macro situation you have described.

    2


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