Every election I put up a few of these web polls. I know they are not scientific by any means. I originally did it to generate some interest in the site, and from the candidates. Nothing motivates a candidate to get back to you like an email that says, “Your getting killed in the poll!”
Over the years, however, I have been surprised at how good they have been at nailing some of these races. Maybe it’s just luck. Maybe the visitors here are a reasonable sample. Whatever the case, I’d like to look at these polls and the dynamics of the August 24th election to do a little crystal ball-gazing. My hunches do not constitute and endorsement. I may not even be happy about them. But they are food for thought, and may help a candidate or two get an idea of where they need to put more effort.
Donovan vs Pinkoson
This poll shows Pinkoson winning handily. It is a Democrat Primary. This poll likely skews toward white voters, so it may not indicate Pinkoson’s support by the African American Accountability Alliance (4As). This group endorsed Pinkoson this year. In 2008 it endorsed Mike Byerly, who defeated Rick Bryant in a respectably close race. Byerly was a sitting county commissioner who’d been elected county wide twice before. I believe the 4As made the difference. Pinkoson is also a 2 term commissioner and he has the 4As endorsement. Jack Donovan is a 2 term city commissioners who, frankly, is not very popular outside of his district. This could be a Pinkoson blowout.
School Board 1
The 4As did not endorse in this race because none of the candidates got a majority. Bonnie Burgess and Felecia Moss, the two African-Americans in this race, will probably do way better than the paltry numbers they are posting on the poll. This may keep poll leader Rick Nesbit from getting over the 50% mark even as he leads April Griffin. Ms. Griffin and her crew had better get out to the East side and knock on a lot of doors if she wants to win in the first round. So far, it looks like a Griffin/Nesbit runoff in November.
School Board 3
Gunnar Paulson got the 4A’s endorsement, and it looks like a first round knock out so far. Jodi Wood has been campaigning for over a year, and makes a good impression on voters at the forum, but he has no money left and Paulson is the Teachers’ Union pick. He has money and organization, and during a Democrat Primary, activist Democrats are very reliable voters. Paulson is their guy. Unless Jodi Wood can reach those African American voters by canvassing these last 9 days, he will probably fall to Paulson.
School Board 5
The two big players in this race, Carol Oyenarte and Jancie Vinson, may be in a runoff in spite of Oyenarte’s lead in the poll. It is just close enough that the Teachers’ Union and 4A’s endorsement of Vinson may get her in a runoff. But the spread is wide enough to make me think that Oyenarte may win it all in a squeaker next week.
Overview
Candidates toward the bottom of the ballot must always remember that the top of the ballot will be a factor in turnout. Most voters do not get jazzed about school board and county commission races. But if there is a marquee lineup at the top, like Crist vs Rubio promised to be, it can be a game changer. Likewise, when Crist dropped out of the Republican Party to run as an independent, it changed things for these races. The McCollum vs Scott primary has gotten so nasty that there is no driving force to get Republicans to come out in any greater number than usual. Meanwhile, the Democrat Primary has a Senate race in which African-Americans may come out to defend Kendrick Meek from Jeff Greene, and a Congressional Primary that pits long-timer Corrine Browne against Scott Fortune. These contests may be drawing cards to get out the East side vote, and this will help anyone endorsed by the 4As.
