Alachua Voter Guide

I did the early voting thing today. It was 7 AM at the Millhopper Branch of the Public Library, and there were probably thirty people ahead of me when I got there. I drove by again hours later, and there was still a long line outside. And I understand it has been like this for weeks. I wondered how this was possible, but then I remembered that there are about 72 precincts being served by the 2 public libraries and the Supervisor of Elections office downtown. So the turnout has been impressive, but we won’t know until it is over just how big it was.

Now that I have made my choices, I thought I would weigh in on who I thought was going to win, and why. These guesses have nothing to do with my preferences. They don’t even have too much to do with the candidates. It has more to do with how the voters act. And we are going to have a lot of voters who are showing up primarily for the Presidential race. The rest of the candidates they will probably be giving their consideration for the very first time right there in the voting booth. Some of these voters will have no information and no voting history to predict how they will react tot the other choices. Therefore, your guess is probably as good as mine.

Congressional District 6

Cliff Stearns has been our Congresssman for 20 years. The power of incumbency is a powerful thing. However, there will be a huge turnout in Alachua County for Barack Obama, and those coattails will benefit newcomer Tim Cunha. Obama voters are likely to vote a straight Democrat ticket, in my opinion. Of course, a lot of the 6th District is in Marion County, which will have a McCain coattail effect. These should equalize each other, giving Mr. Stearns another term.

State House District 11

Debbie Boyd won in an upset in 2006. Now she is the incumbent. Obama-heavy Alachua County is only a part of her district. The rural counties are more likely to be McCain country. But Ms. Boyd is a conservative Democrat, which most Republicans can live with. She should defeat Elizabeth Porter in a close race.

State House District 23

Chuck Chestnut should take out Bernie DeCastro in a blowout. Mr. DeCastro has been invisible during this race, and Chestnut is the incumbent riding the Obama wave.

Alachua County Commission

This is a very bad year to be running against a Democrat in this county. Obama is going to take this county 60-40 easily, and a lot of those voters will vote by their default: party identification. Even though the county commissioners raise the ire of many homeowners, they keep getting re-elected. Republicans seldom mount a serious charge. I believe Mike Byerly, Paula Delaney, and Rodney Long will all win. The closest race will probably be the Lloyd Bailey-Paula Delaney contest. Bailey has run twice before and has good name recognition and is well thought of. But he will still likely lose because of the disadvantage that comes with having an opponent with a D after her name.

Alachua County Judge

Denise Ferrero took 45% to Lorraine Sherman’s 21% in the August contest that set up this runoff. Sherman has been banging away on Ferrero for the past month, attacking her integity and credibility. This is unusual, but in a judicial race it should give the voters pause. However, you have to bang away for a lot more than one month to overcome the apathy of the typical voter. Ms. Ferrero’s lead in August is a good sampling of the November race, and she will likely prevail, although Sherman’s surge will make it closer. I believe that Ferrero will win 55-45%

Soil and Water Conservation District

In seat 2, David Gildart has been the candidate who has been acting like he wants it; at least on this site. People have been searching for him on the Internet, and finding him here. In this non-partisan race, I have to give him the edge. In the race for seat 4, Rob Brinkman is well-known and politically connected with the local Democrats. Name recognition and his friends in the local machine give him the edge over Mary Ann Gosa, who I still know nothing about.

Local Referenda

I will not call winners and losers in the state-wide ballot initiatives. I am a strict Alachua-tarian in that regard. In the One Mil for Education, I believe that one will pass. People know the earlier property tax cut the voters passed state-wide in January put a hurt on schools. They will probably restore it with local money by voting yes, 60-40%. Wild Spaces/Public Places would ordinarily not be likely to pass. The public does not like to tax itself twice on the same ballot. I see schools being favored over wildlife and parks. This one should go down 60-40%, except- The Obama Effect. Will first time voters and young voters just write a big check while they are at it? I think this passes in a squeaker. Likewise with the third local referendum, Protection of County Owned Lands Acquired or Used for Conservation, Recreation or Cultural Purposes. It will pass 60-40%.

I may be completely wrong, and these do not reflect my preferences. It’s just the way I see it shaking out.

Former Gainesville City Commissioner Ed Braddy was on the Bob Rose Show this week. Here is the audio download in mp3 format.

“We covered them all over the full hour, but of interest are the discussion on Amendment 2 (the marriage issue) that begins at minute 3:20, and discussion of the Alachua County items that begin at minute 17:45 and closes out the program.” -Ed Braddy

It is quite common for political ideologues to use families and/or children for cover during their campaigns. What happens when families on both side of an issue have a grievance?

The Florida Marriage Protection Amendment, known by the number “2″ around here, is such an issue. It will be voted on state-wide, and it needs a 60-40 majority to pass. That seemed pretty promising when it was thought of as an amendment that would prevent gay marriage from taking hold down here. But by redefining the amendment as one that could potentially hurt families that are formed by non-matrimonial circumstances, opponents are making this a close one.

There is a poll that puts the amendment ahead 55-39% with about 6% undecided. To me, that indicates that there is a real need for more discussion about this. Are one or both sides using disinformation? Do one or both sides have realistic fears?

On the pro-2 side, it’s not unreasonable to think that existing laws may eventually be overturned by an activist court. By making the definition of marriage a constitutional matter, it makes it harder for future judiciary to take this matter into its own hands. What will they do, say the constitution is unconstitutional?

On the anti-2 side, they worry that this law will be used by activist bureaucrats or other government officials to disenfranchise children born out of wedlock, seniors who live together for financial or legal reasons, and domestic partners trying to get hospital visitation rights.

I’m not sure that this amendment is a magic bullet for either side, win or lose. If you are worried about losing your rights, or about your society crumbling, it will take more than a law on the books. It will take vigilance all year round. You have to take an interest in the people who become judges, the people who appoint those who are appointed, and be involved in your community. But if you are one of those people who thinks Jennifer Aniston and Matthew Perry are your “Friends”, and if you really do love Raymond, you may not have a say in your real world when you do finally emerge from your living room.

Group that is FOR Amendment 2

Group that is AGAINST it.

I just got the latest sample ballot from the Supervisor of Elections Office. It is not easy to find on their website, but it is there. I will provide the link here to the page that has the ballots listed according to which State House District you live in. Here are the 3 local items that will be on the ballots of ALL Alachua County Voters.

1. Earlier this year, during the Presidential Preference Primary/Gainesville City Commission Election, there was a tax cut on the statewide ballot that passed. It passed. Now it is time for Alachua County residents to decide if they want to restore the revenue lost to local public schools by passing a local property tax. Here is how the ballot item, listed under “County Referenda”, will be described:

Approval Of An Additional One Mill Ad Valorem Tax For School District Operating Expenses

Shall the Alachua County School District’s ad valorem millage be increased by a total of one mill, beginning July 1, 2009, and ending four years later on June 30, 2013, for necessary operating expenses including funds to provide school nurses; maintain elementary music and art programs, middle school band programs, school library programs, elementary guidance programs, and academic/career/technical magnet programs; and update classroom technology; with oversight by an independent citizens’ committee?

2. In 2004, the CHOICES program was passed by the narrowest of margins during the August 31 Primary. This is why we have that added 1/4% sales tax. But during the November General Election there were two taxes, a 1/2% sales tax for roads, and another 1/2% for parks and recreation. Both lost narrowly. This year, the Parks and Recreation tax will be embedded in this item.

Wild Spaces & Public Places Environmental Lands, Parks and Recreation One-Half Percent Sales Tax

Shall Alachua County be authorized to extend the Alachua County Forever Program to acquire and improve environmentally sensitive lands to protect drinking water sources, water quality, and wildlife habitat, and to create, improve and maintain parks and recreational facilities in all cities and the County, with citizen oversight and independent audit, by the levy of a one-half percent (1/2%) sales tax for two (2) years starting January 1,  2009, and ending December 31, 2010?

 3. Alachua County residents voted to tax themselves to buy lands for the purpose of greenspace preservation back in 2000. This referendum is to keep future county commissioners from selling those lands without a public referendum.

Protection of County-Owned Lands Acquired or Used for Conservation, Recreation, or Cultural Purposes

Shall the Alachua County Charter be amended to require that the sale or conversion to another use of  county owned lands acquired or used for conservation, recreation, or cultural purposes be effective only if approved by a majority of the electors in the County in a County-wide referendum election?

The Florida Supreme Court threw out 3 State Constitutional Amendments that would have been on the November Ballot this past Wednesday. This New York Times article gives a quick summary.

The items were Ballot initiative numbers 5, 7, and 9.  Number 5 would have given voters the choice to disconnect school funding from local property taxes, making them entirely dependent on state funding. Number 7 would have made it possible to give tax dollars to religious schools as part of a plan to clear the way for vouchers. Number 9 would have mandated that 65% of education money would have to be spent in the classroom.

Oops. Missed a biggy.

“Proposing an amendment to the State Constitution to provide that an individual or entity may not be barred from participating in any public program because of religion and to delete the prohibition against using revenues from the public treasury directly or indirectly in aid of any church, sect, or religious denomination or in aid of any sectarian institution.”

Full text version in PDF format here.

“Requires at least 65 percent of school funding received by school districts be spent on classroom instruction, rather than administration; allows for differences in administrative expenditures by district. Provides the constitutional requirement for the state to provide a “uniform, efficient, safe, secure, and high quality system of free public schools” is a minimum, nonexclusive duty. Reverses legal precedent prohibiting public funding of private school alternatives to public school programs without creating an entitlement.”

Full text version in PDF format here.

“Proposing an amendment to the State Constitution to require that the Legislature authorize counties to levy a local option sales tax to supplement community college funding; requiring voter approval to levy the tax; providing that approved taxes will sunset after 5 years and may be reauthorized by the voters.”

Full text version in PDF format here.

“Provides for assessment based upon use of land used predominantly for commercial fishing purposes; land used for vessel launches into waters that are navigable and accessible to the public; marinas and drystacks that are open to the public; and water-dependent marine manufacturing facilities, commercial fishing facilities, and marine vessel construction and repair facilities and their support activities, subject to conditions, limitations, and reasonable definitions specified by general law.”

Full text version in PDF format here.

“Replacing state required school property taxes with state revenues generating an equivalent hold harmless amount for schools through one or more of the following options: repealing sales tax exemptions not specifically excluded; increasing sales tax rate up to one percentage point; spending reductions; other revenue options created by the legislature. Limiting subject matter of laws granting future exemptions. Limiting annual increases in assessment of non-homestead real property. Lowering property tax millage rate for schools.”

Find the full text version in PDF format here.

It seems like the state would replace local school property taxes with an increase in the state sales tax, and/or making other things taxable, and/or spending reductions. This seems to be a very big and complicated change that seems to take the responsibility of funding schools from the local government, and makes local schools more dependent on the state. Please feel free to weigh in on this one.